The Avian H5N1 influenza virus was recently found in a pig on an Oregon farm. This marks the first recorded instance of swine carrying bird flu in the United States. Pigs serve as “mixing vessels” where viruses can mutate, leading to human-to-human transmission.
Such a development could spark the next global pandemic—a scenario the U.S. and world are not prepared for. Gaps in vaccine readiness and stockpiling are vast. Medical and government officials must consider the possibility of a major H1N1-like outbreak.
Why Avian Flu Transmission to Pigs Heightens Pandemic Concerns
The H5N1 virus has a high mutation rate, making its threat level to humans unpredictable. It can “reassort” or mix with other flu viruses, creating new strains.
Pigs, which can host both avian and human flu viruses, allow for gene swapping. A new strain could form in pigs, one capable of infecting and spreading among humans. Such a trend would parallel past pandemics linked to similar swine-related flu strains. The 2009 H1N1 outbreak provides a stark example of that possibility.
If an H5N1 pandemic occurred, U.S. vaccine stockpiles would fall short. The U.S. currently has fewer than 5 million vaccines for the virus. By spring 2025, the government aims to raise that number to 10 million. Even if achieved, this stockpile would inoculate less than 2% of the U.S. population. Globally, preparedness is even lower.
Despite advances in vaccine technology during COVID-19, no mRNA flu vaccines exist yet. mRNA vaccines could adapt to mutating strains quickly. Current U.S. stockpiles rely on older egg-based technology, which is slow to scale up. As of writing, U.S. officials have no plans to distribute or administer bird flu vaccines.
With fewer virus strains to focus on, vaccine producers may increase manufacturing capacity. A larger vaccine supply could prevent millions of infections, hundreds of thousands of deaths, and billions of dollars lost in healthcare costs and productivity.
Pfizer and Moderna are currently testing new mRNA vaccines for avian influenza. Researchers at the University of Pennsylvania are working on their own version. However, producing flu vaccines is challenging. Flu viruses mutate constantly, requiring regular vaccine updates to remain effective.
Health officials hesitate to scale bird flu vaccine production. The virus would mutate before it becomes a pandemic. They hope to respond quickly if the virus adapts to human transmission. Yet, in the event of a sudden mutation, it’s unlikely manufacturers could act fast enough. Rising vaccine skepticism also poses a public health threat.
What Are the Current Risks of an Avian Flu Pandemic?
Health officials currently see the human risk of a bird flu pandemic as low. Recent human cases cause mild symptoms, including eye redness, discharge, and respiratory issues.
The two remaining A strains and one B strain of influenza now show less genetic diversity. Due to the COVID-19 pandemic, each strain prevailed in specific regions. A strains dominate South and Southeast Asia and West Africa, and the B strain has a strong foothold in China.
Despite this, H5N1 in U.S. birds and livestock this year has raised alarms. Since April, nearly 400 dairy herds and poultry flocks have tested positive for bird flu. In the same period, the CDC reports 36 human cases from animal exposure. As flu season approaches, the chances for genetic reassignment and mutation increase.
The recent swine case of bird flu in Oregon raises mutation concerns. Some infectious disease experts wonder whether the virus was on the pig’s nose or in its lungs. Detection in the lungs would suggest a greater risk of the virus mutating.
To avoid catching bird flu, consider these CDC
recommendations:
- Avoid sick or dead animals, especially birds and poultry.
- Stay clear of animal excrement, bedding, or other possibly contaminated materials.
- Do not consume raw milk, as pasteurization kills avian influenza viruses.
- Those working with animals should wear personal protective gear when handling them.
The CDC continues to monitor and investigate public health risks from avian influenza.
Conclusion
Despite its current low risk to humans, the H5N1 virus remains a looming threat. Limited vaccine stockpiles and reliance on outdated production methods leave populations vulnerable. Modernizing vaccine technology and expanding animal flu surveillance could improve H5N1 pandemic preparedness. Officials must be ready to respond to any mutation toward human transmission.
Have an upcoming trip? Passport Health offers a wide variety of options to help keep you safe from disease, including flu vaccines. Call or book online to schedule your appointment today.
Logan Hamilton is a health and wellness freelance writer for hire. He’s passionate about crafting crystal-clear, captivating, and credible content that elevates brands and establishes trust. When not writing, Logan can be found hiking, sticking his nose in bizarre books, or playing drums in a local rock band. Find him at loganjameshamilton.com.
